Sharks (2) vs Stars (5) Series Preview

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They made it interesting, but the San Jose Sharks were able to move into the Western Conference semifinals. They knocked off Calgary 5-3 in Game Seven Tuesday night to survive a first-round scare.

While the Sharks were heavy favorites to advance, the Dallas Stars were not. Their first-round win over defending champion Anaheim came virtually out of nowhere. The Stars neutralized the Ducks' big forwards with a crop of young defensemen who had never proven themselves in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. They were so good over the balance of this series that Marty Turco was hardly tested, especially when his team was playing with a lead.

These are division rivals, meaning they met eight times during the regular season. They split those meetings, with two of San Jose's four wins coming in overtime. Even though the Sharks are going to enter this series as the favorite, you should expect to see some entertaining games.

Offense: The Sharks have size, speed, and depth. They boast a former MVP in Joe Thornton who is still itching to shake the label of "playoff underachiever" (whether he deserves that label or not is a subject for a different day). Thornton was overshadowed by Jeremy Roenick's big night in Game Seven, but he's still a key guy for the Sharks, as evidenced by his near 22:00 of ice time in that game (more than any other Shark forward). Roenick isn't counted on for big things, but he can obviously still deliver. Oh yeah, and they still have those Cheechoo and Marleau guys, and a supporting cast featuring the likes of Roenick, Joe Pavelski, and Milan Michalek is strong.

Dallas isn't exactly lacking for talented forwards, but they are not as big or as deep as their opponent. Of course, you could have said that in the first round, too. The Stars have a solid group of forwards, led by Mike Ribeiro and Brendan Morrow, who were huge in the Anaheim series. Jere Lehtinen, Mike Modano, and Stu Barnes are older guys who can still bring it. Dallas didn't get beaten up by Anaheim's big, physical forwards, because Anaheim took too many undisciplined penalties. San Jose is a more disciplined team, and their depth should pose more of a challenge to the Stars.
Edge: San Jose

Defense: The performance of Dallas' young defensemen is probably the most understated surprise of these playoffs so far. They knew going in that rookie Matt Niskanen was pretty good, being that he made the team out of training camp, played in all but four games, and led Dallas defensemen with a plus-22. Not bad for a rookie. What was surprising in the Anaheim series was the play of guys like Niklas Grossman and Mark Fistric. At least early in this series, it's likely that Dallas will need these young guys again. Sergei Zubov missed the first round after sports hernia surgery, and while he could return in this series, it doesn't look good for Game One.

The Sharks have some serious minute-eaters on defense. Brian Campbell, Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Craig Rivet, and Christian Ehrhoff all averaged over 20 minutes a game in the first round (by the way, none of the seven games went overtime). They combined for a plus-five in the series, and they need to do even more against Dallas. I tend to think Dallas brings a little more speed to the table than Calgary, and there were times the Sharks looked like they were skating in mud in their own zone. The focus and effort from the whole team (especially while playing defense) has to be more consistent in this series. That said, it looks like San Jose has a little more to work with.
Edge: San Jose

Goaltending: Evgeni Nabokov was underwhelming at times during the regular season, and the first round was no different. His save percentage dipped below .900 against Calgary, and it has to improve this time around. The Sharks aren't good or consistent enough in front of him to be able to afford a lackluster effort in goal.

Marty Turco got great protection from the skaters in front of him, but he was solid when it mattered against Anaheim. He kept the Ducks off the board after Corey Perry's (somewhat) softie in Game Six, and then he faced very little heat in the third period as the Stars dominated. Turco is still capable of the occasional stinker, but if the Stars do another superb job of protecting him, it might not matter.
Edge: Dallas

Special teams: Yes, San Jose has Joe on the power play, but I think Dallas has more scoring depth on their two line. They were great against Anaheim, scoring ten goals in six games. The Sharks weren't quite as sharp, but these teams match up very evenly on special teams. San Jose was dreadful on the penalty kill against Calgary, but they were the top team in the NHL during the regular season. Of course, Dallas was right behind them in second place, so a lot of this comes down to which San Jose kill shows up this series.
Edge: Even

Prediction: I hate to bet against a Dallas team that was so impressive in the first round, but I'm given little choice here. The Stars appear to be just a little short on paper, but if they can catch the Sharks taking undisciplined penalties and get off to good starts in these first two games, all bets are off. It just seems like a lot to ask.

(The most intriguing question surrounding this series: If San Jose doesn't get the job done, will that first-round win be enough to save Ron Wilson's job?)
The pick: San Jose in six