NHL Season Preview: Atlanta Thrashers

Posted Sep 16, 2008 8:00AM By Jon (RSS feed)

Welcome to the NHL FanHouse 2008-09 season preview. While other sites are previewing "30 teams in 30 days," we decided to take advantage of the extra time off before the start of the season to bring you all 30 previews over the next three weeks. We're counting down in reverse order of finish from last season in each conference every weekday from now until October 3. Look for an Eastern Conference preview every morning and a Western Conference preview every afternoon. Click here to read them all.

Who's In: John Anderson, Head Coach; Zach Bogosian, D (Draft-2008); Ron Hainsey, D (FA-CBJ); Marty Reasoner, C (FA-EDM); Jason Williams, RW (FA-CHI)

Who's Out: Darren Haydar, F (FA-DET); Bobby Holik, C (FA-NJ); Jason Krog, C/W (FA-~~Europe~~VAN); Joel Kwiatkowski, D (FA-Europe); Steve McCarthy, D (FA-Europe); Mark Popovic, D (FA-Europe); Mark Recchi, RW (FA-TB); Alexei Zhitnik, D (FA-Europe)

What's Changed: Not enough.

Atlanta is a team that finished the 2007-08 season 22nd in the League in goals scored (and that was with sixty games of Marian Hossa)... and added Jason Williams and Marty Reasoner up front. The Thrashers gave up the most goals in the League... and added Ron Hainsey (he of the eighth-worst plus-minus among all NHL defensemen over the past two seasons) to the blueline.

But hey, it's not all bad -- the Thrash can feel pretty confident that they're near the front of the line when it comes to picking up other teams' trash. Time to plan the parade, eh?

The Thrashers offense begins and nearly ends with Ilya Kovalchuk, who somehow potted 52 goals last season despite having Mark Recchi and Todd White as his most frequent even strength linemates. Kovalchuk also led the Thrashers in assists and just about every other category that didn't require him to visit the defensive zone (Kovy has the fifth-worst plus-minus rating in the NHL since he came into the League in 2001-02, and was minus-12 in 2007-08). It's also worth noting that the superstar sniper had "just" 18 points in 19 games after Hossa was traded, perhaps an ominous sign of things to come.

Just how weak is Kovalchuk's supporting cast? Last season, Slava Kozlov, White, Jason Williams, Eric Perrin, Colby Armstrong, Erik Christensen, Bryan Little and Brett Sterling -- who will presumably join Ilya to form Atlanta's top three lines this coming season -- combined for just 87 goals. There's hope for bounce-back seasons from Kozlov and White and the emergence of Christensen, Little and Sterling (who put up, um, sterling numbers in the minors), but even if it all comes together, the ceiling on Atlanta's offense isn't all that high for the near future.

And as bad as the Thrashers offense is likely to be, the collection of blueliners could be worse (General Sherman faced tougher Atlanta defenses), though with a better long-range forecast. Hainsey and sophomore Tobias Enstrom are both good puck movers (though the former has had consistency problems throughout his career and the latter ran out of gas after around 60 games in his first NHL season); Niclas Havelid and Ken Klee can eat some minutes, but each is on the wrong side of 35-years-old; and Garnet Exelby is a rugged rearguard who will at some point be replaced by Boris Valabik. But the gem of the group is Zach Bogosian, the third overall pick in this past summer's draft, a Rob Blake type who will be given every chance to make the team and play as many minutes as he can handle. The bottom line, however, is that the defensemen named in this paragraph combined to have a minus-38 rating in the NHL last season (though minus-21 of it was Exelby's), and may get a little worse before they get better, which doesn't bode terribly well for Atlanta's goaltenders.

Speaking of Atlanta's goaltenders, Kari Lehtonen, is coming off yet another injury-plagued season, albeit one in which he posted a very solid .916 save percentage. He'll be backed up once again by Johan Hedberg, who somehow at 35-years-old turned the League's worst GAA into a 2-year/$2.15 million contract. Looming over the whole goaltending situation, however, will be the presence (literally or figuratively) of top prospect Ondrej Pavalec, who led the John Anderson-coached Chicago Wolves of the AHL to last year's Calder Cup title.

And speaking of John Anderson, he's now the head coach in Atlanta, where they hope to catch a little of that Bruce Boudreau magic, however unlikely that may be. But Anderson has won at lower levels (four times, in fact), and is the kind of hire that sends the right message about the state of the franchise and its rebuild. And heck, before coaching a single NHL game, he's got a better career winning percentage than one coach in the division.

Who's On The Hook: Don Waddell must be on the fifteenth or sixteenth of his nine lives as Thrashers General Manager, and Bill Tiller recently lamented some of Wads' greatest misses and the fact that he's still employed:

[L]ogic would dictate that someone who has been the sole general manager of a franchise that over 8 seasons has made the playoffs but one time...has yet to win a playoff game...has had to fire two coaches that he has hired...who just last season watched five years of measurable progress wipe away...who watched prolific scorer Marian Hossa refuse to re-sign because he was convinced the team was not heading in the right direction...who was unable to lure in the talent of Brian Campbell even though he offered more money than the team which did sign him...who's franchise that was built primarily on his decisions was pretty much b-slapped by Dan Boyle when he capitulated and waived the No Trade Clause of his contract for fear he could be waived and picked up by that team...yes, logic would dictate that such a GM would indeed be on a short leash.

However, logic and Thrashers' ownership, at least in regards to hockey, do not always dance cheek to cheek.

Such, perhaps, is life in George W. Bush's America -- Don Waddell is doing a heck of a job and is apparently GM for Life in Atlanta.

Which leaves us with the man who is truly on the hook, Kari Lehtonen. The former number two overall pick in 2002 has only played more than 48 games in a season once and is coming off the first losing campaign of his career. He'll make $3 million this coming season before possibly heading to Restricted Free Agency. With Pavelec waiting in the wings, will Atlanta pony up the big bucks to keep Kari or move him for more help in their rebuild and double down on Ondrej? We should know by New Year's Day.

Where They'll Finish: Since "the AHL" isn't really an option here, fifth in the Southeast Division and easily in the John Tavares Draft Lottery is the answer.

Blogs To Watch: Blueland Blog, Thrashers Blog (AJC), The Ice Man Bloggeth (AJC), Do The Thrashers Have Long Blog Names Large Talons, Fire Wagon Hockey, The Blueland Chronicle, The Thrashers 411.

Gratuitous YouTube Embed: Whether or not the Thrashers are competetive, they're worth watching on any given night. Here are ten reasons (which is really just one reason) why:

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)

9-16-2008 @ 11:28AM

Steve said...

First of all, if you are going to criticize the offense, get your facts right. Jason Williams didn't play for us last year nor did Reasoner. Williams played for Chicago and Reasoner for Edmonton.

2nd, the Atlanta fans know that it is hard to replace Marian Hossa, but if you were here in Atlanta, the whole morale around here in Atlanta was worse with him here before the trade, and got worse after he and Dupuis left. You are right about that. Kozlov and White did not live up to expectations. We know that too. But, Armstrong and Christensen played behind Crosby and Malkin and, as of yet, have shown their true potential. Christensen was shuffled around from 2nd to 3rd line, from center to winger, and back, and then got injured after coming here. So, we haven't seen what he can do. He is meant to play center, and hopefully we will see what he can truly do. Williams is a proven forward, if he can stay healthy. Both Chicago and Detroit fans said that he was a true asset to both of their teams, but understandably he was traded from both looking at the depth of talent on both teams. Chicago has Toews, Kane, Sharp, and others. Detroit, do I even have to say who they have?!?

Our defense was abysmal. We know it. Exelby was the worst one that we have retained. Klee is ok, and is gritty. But Havelid? He and Enstrom were the two best defenseman. Havelid still plays well. Bogosain and Valabik can only get better. Hainsey was not the best defenseman to get, but he was the best one we could get, and he is being criticized by a lot of the press; I have spoken to some people and looked at some of his stats, and he was in the top 8-10 defenseman to go in free agency. I understand that he has been up and down, but compared to what we had on defense, he is an improvement, and he moves the puck. Other than Enstrom, Havelid, and Klee we didn't really have enough puck moving defenseman. Anderson has gone on record as saying that the best defenseman will play and the best forwards will play. So, looking at defense, you know that Enstrom and Havelid will probably be on the 1st d-line, Hainsey and bogosian will be 2nd line, and Klee and either Valabik or Exelby will be on the 3rd line. If Exelby doesn't prove he can play, he will either get traded or bought out. Mark my words. People in Atlanta are really sick of seeing his lack of skill, and I don't think he will be around for much longer if he doesn't improve.

Now, about what place would that put Atlanta? Well, Washington, Carolina, and Tampa Bay are vying for the top three spots, and then Florida and Atlanta. This division has always been tough to call. Carolina had it up until the last month. Washington has been improving a lot of late, and Tampa has really made themselves look like they can do a lot on offense, but their defense and goaltending are in question. Florida has a great goaltender in Vokoun, and their front lines may be better now that Jokinen is gone. Defense should be better now that they resigned Bouwmeester, but Florida is very inconsistent too. So, 3rd-5th are tough to call. There are still a lot of unknown factors that go on during the season too. So, for you to predict them to be last is really ridiculous!! Tampa Bay has some great forwards in Lecavalier and St. Louis, but they ended up being last this past season! So, how do you explain that one? Kovalchuk, we know has not a good plus minus and is not defensive minded, but he is a scorer. Who knows? But you are really being rough on the Thrashers, and the season hasn't even started. This is why I hate predictions because usually everyone is wrong!! Some commentators were picking Montreal or Anaheim to win the Stanley Cup this past year, and neither one did. So that is what I have to say about predictions!! Stop making them!

9-16-2008 @ 11:33AM

J.P. said...

Steve - In at least two places I noted that Williams and Reasoner are new. Where'd I say they played for Atlanta last season?

Thanks for the otherwise very thorough and thoughtful comment, though. As for predictions, I had to pick someone to finish last in the Southeast, and I simply think that Florida and Tampa (to say nothing of Washington and Carolina) are better teams. But we'll see - that's why they play the games.

9-16-2008 @ 1:35PM

Ben said...

For what it's worth, Bill Tiller's AJC blog is a fan blog and shouldn't be treated with the same weight as a beat reporter's blog. As good of a job as he does with it he doesn't have inside access to the team, coaches or management.

Justin said...

You give a lot more credit to plus/minus than the stat is worth. Look at the average plus/minus for the team to rate the player, not just the number.

Also, Falconer's blog is "Do the Thrashers have LARGE Talons?"

Otherwise, fair enough.

Ok, you said that all 3 were additions, but you said later, "Just how weak is Kovalchuk's supporting cast? Last season, Slava Kozlov, White, Jason Williams, Eric Perrin, Colby Armstrong, Erik Christensen, Bryan Little and Brett Sterling -- who will presumably join Ilya to form Atlanta's top three lines this coming season -- combined for just 87 goals." - Here you group Jason Williams with last year's group when Jason Williams was with the Blackhawks and then was out with an injury for probably around 30 or more games. Little and Sterling played 10-15 games in the NHL before being sent back down to the AHL Chicago Wolves. Fine. Like I said, White and Kozlov did not contribute as much as they should have. Perrin did though, and that is why he is staying. He made key plays, and goals behind Recchi. He surpassed what he did in Tampa Bay, and he played with enthusiasm. I know because I actually watched the games and saw it. Armstrong and Christensen came late after the Trade Deadline. Armstrong did pretty well considering how many games he had left. Christensen went down with an injury after a few games. So, again, we don't really know what anyone really can do aside from Kovalchuk, White, and Kozlov because the rest were not here for long enough to properly evaluate their performance.

I know you have to pick someone, but it might have been better to say that it will be close for the last three spots for Tampa Bay, Florida, and Atlanta, and I would have said that it may be between Washington and Carolina for the top spot again. But then again, Tampa Bay may win the division with all of their forwards, but then again maybe not as they don't have much of a defense, and there are questions about Mike Smith and the backup goalie too. So, maybe it would have been better to be noncommittal because this division is changing so much. Carolina may also not be such a sure thing because of their defense too, and the inconsistent play of Cam Ward last season, and without knowledge of who their back-up will be. Throw in the loss of Glenn Wesley and the let go of Brett Hedican, which I think is a good move. So, again, Carolina may not be such a sure bet either. I guess Washington looks like the #1 and everyone else is questionable at best.

9-16-2008 @ 2:47PM

Jennifer said...

Hi there,

I am not 100% sure, but I believe that Jason Krog went to NHL in Vancouver - not Europe. I think that there were 'talks' of overseas playing - but the Canucks signed him.

9-17-2008 @ 1:39PM

I'd also recommend you check out Alan Ryder's site comparing player contribution. If you do a bit of research, you will find Hainsey is a much better dman than you give him credit for. My question would be, "How much of Hainsey's game can you credit to Hitchock/will it translate to Atlanta?"

9-16-2008 @ 5:41PM

@ Jennifer - Spot on wrt Krog. Thanks for the catch.

@ Justin - My apologies to The Falconer (a friend of mine) for butchering his blog's name in an effort to make a joke that wasn't even funny had it been executed properly.