After getting off to a solid 8-2-2 start, not losing a game in regulation for 3 weeks, the Buffalo Sabres have defined the phrase 'regressing to the mean,' losing seven of their last eight (1-6-1) and now sit in 9th place in the East, one game over .500 at 9-8-3. What's surprising is that this swoon has occurred once the team got healthy. Starting the season practically down three centers one would have figured a slow start, yet they grab 16 of 18 points. Once Jochen Hecht returned from his broken finger they've won just one game and garnered only three points. I'mnot trying to draw a causal link or anything, but the normally solid Hecht has looked a step behind the play and is a -5 in the last 5 games.Everything that was going right in October is going wrong in November. Miller and Lalime had the proverbial Bill Clement 'force field' up, the defense kept everyone's forwards to the outside and every decent scoring chance ticked the jumbotron's display in their favor. Now, every mistake winds up in their net, they're hitting goalposts with the same frequency that they were hitting the net and Miller/Lalime have been ordinary, Miller in particular. The second goal he gave up against Philadelphia on Friday was unacceptable for a winning team, but seem to be all too common on teams that are losing. An unscreened shot, forty-plus feet out in the third period of a 1-0 hockey game, must be stopped.
Lindy Ruff has made it publicly clear that he will use his relative roster depth and ice-time to motivate anyone. This past weekend he sat previously-untouchable defenseman Henrik Tallinder and Why-is-he-still-in-Buffalo Maxim Afinogenov. Previously, guys like Drew Stafford and Daniel Paille have had their turns in the press box.
Yesterday on WGR in Buffalo, Ruff stressed that, as always, slumps like this start with the little things; forwards not coming back deep enough on defense, defense men not making the right reads, and the dreaded 'not staying with the system.' Once the losing starts the loss of confidence just makes things worse. Forwards cheat even more, the defense men try riskier outlet passes and the offense becomes an unorganized mess. He also said that Tallinder would likely be in the lineup tonight. No comment was made about Afinogenov.
While they played much better over the weekend, they'll have to take the positives from the last two games where stronger play did not translate into wins back to the ice for the current Beasts of the East, the Boston Bruins; a team that defines all of the things the Sabres currently are not. This is a great opportunity to see if losing has become unacceptable in that room. The Bruins are now the measuring stick.
In reality, this team is not good 5 on 5, a team total -13, with only 2 regular contributors playing at a plus, while everyone else is a minus player, and for some, a sincere minus. If not for excellent penalty killing on the road (88.6%) they would be in a lot more trouble. Only Toni Lydman is in positive territory at a +4. Lydman has been the only truly consistent performer on defense all season. It seems Ruff's move to put him back on the left side, his forehand, has not harmed him in the least.
At the quarter pole point of the season the Sabres have gone from the league's toughest to one of the league's easiest outs. If this situation lasts for any length of time, the normally patient-to-a-fault Darth Regier will be practically forced (by the standings, his budget and his farm team) to make a move he'd rather not make. I'll give it until the Christmas break.
Ta,
