On February 23, 2009, the people that brought us the statistical analysis websites Baseball Prospectus and Basketball Prospectus, launched their hockey counterpart, Puck Prospectus. While hockey is somewhat behind the times when it comes to this sort analysis, it's not completely unheard of at this point. Gabriel Desjardins, for example, has been running the fascinating analytical website Behind The Net for a couple of years now, while there is also the little-known Corsi Numbers.
After the jump, we had an opportunity to ask Will Carroll, one of the leading people at Puck Prospectus, a few questions on what the site can provide hockey fans.
Adam Gretz: I'm intrigued by the idea of Puck Prospectus, mainly because I don't think there are many resources like this for hockey fans. I guess my first question is the obvious, how did this come about? Was it because there is an untapped market for this sort of analysis in hockey? Or was it just the next step in the process (Baseball Prospectus ... Football Outsiders ... Basketball Prospectus)?
Will Carroll: Thanks for taking an interest in our work at Puck Prospectus. We felt that the objective analysis of hockey was lacking and that there was a market opportunity for the same kind of analysis we do at Prospectus.
While hockey is a smaller market than the other major sports, it has a very passionate, hardcore audience. Combine the two and we think it will be great. It's certainly a better idea than NASCAR Prospectus, though the work we've done on left turn percentage is pretty groundbreaking.
AG: It seems there has always been some resistance to the Baseball Prospectus movement from some former players (Joe Morgan, for example) and some of the mainstream media. Do you see there being a similar resistance from long-time hockey people? I mean, hockey purists aren't exactly all that receptive to change, it seems.
WC: There's always resistance to change. That's human. Our challenge is to give out the information and explain it well enough that the facts are clear. We can all have different opinions, but we don't get to argue about facts. I'm more focused on the fans than the media and think that we'll see the same kind of uptake with teams that we've seen in baseball and football.
AG: Are you familiar at all with the work being done by Gabriel Desjardins at Behind The Net, and will Puck Prospectus be developing a similar database (kind of like what you've done with Baseball Prospectus) to statistically evaluate players?
As of now, all we as hockey fans really have are the traditional goals/assists numbers and the highly-flawed, and often times worthless, plus/minus. Basically, can you offer us something better than plus/minus?
WC: I love what Gabriel has done. I can't say more than that *wink*
AG: How difficult is the process to develop such numbers? I imagine it would be somewhat challenging seeing as how hockey is such a team-oriented game.
While baseball has its park factors that can make a difference in a player's performance, a gifted play-making center can boost the performance of a marginal winger. Is there a way to tell how much of an impact a player's goal-scoring can have by playing on a line with Joe Thornton as opposed to Joe Pavelski?
We know there's a difference between the two players, but can we put a number on it? Or are we too early in the process for such things?
WC: It's certainly not going to be easy, but building off the work that's been done in basketball with tempo-free stats, we can make progress. Aaron Schatz from Football Outsiders always says "the best is the enemy of the better." We're not going to be the be-all, end-all of stats right off the bat, but we think we have a chance to get there with the resources of PEV and a very strong team.
AG: With the way statistical analysis has taken off in some baseball front offices (Billy Beane in Oakland, Theo Epstein in Boston as a few examples) do you see a day in the future when front offices in hockey follow a similar path? Or is it already happening? I imagine it would take one team committing to it and having success with it.
WC: It's happening to some extent, but we're hoping to help grow it. If the teams see value in what we're doing, they'll adopt it in some measure, just as they have in the other sports.
AG: Will there be a yearly Puck Prospectus book? Please say there will be a book.
WC: We'd love to do a book, but publishing is an odd world right now. I don't want to commit either way in the future, though getting something out for 2009-2010 is probably not possible at this stage. I'm sure there's some intermediate step.
