Each Friday throughout the season, I'll provide you with my predictions on whose stock is on the rise and whose is failing miserably like It's that time of the year again, the time when everyone is fixated on playoff races, who's going to make it in and who isn't. That's all well and good, but for a few teams in the league, there's another race going on which their fans are preoccupied with -- the race for the first pick in the draft.
It will all culminate on April 14th with the draft lottery and, right now, teams are trying to secure their spot as the worst in the league. Or at least I'm assuming they are, since they would never admit it publicly. Today, we'll take a look at who has the best chance of finishing last in the league and earning that all important 48 percent chance, awarded to the worst team in the league, of landing the top pick and their choice of John Tavares or Victor Hedman.
This week, we're going to take things a little differently. I'll give you my picks on the most likely candidates to finish the season as the worst team in the league and earn those lottery balls.
45 percent: New York Islanders (5 games to go, 59 points) -- The Islanders are the leader right now, having held the top spot ... er ... last spot in the NHL since December 22. With only five games to go, one of which is against the Lightning, it's no sure thing that they're going to hold onto the last spot. In fact, they've been trying to get rid of it with a 13-14-2 record since January 21. That's downright mediocre and not typical of a last place team. However, they're 1-5-1 in their last six games, showing signs that they are still interested in being the league's worst team when all is said and done. Not only that, but their two best players (Kyle Okposo and Mark Streit) are out with injury. Hmm. That sounds fishy to me, and has all the characteristics of a good tanking.
30 percent: Colorado Avalanche (5 to go, 5 points back) -- Once upon a time, the Avalanche were in the playoff picture. Things have changed drastically in Colorado, where they can't buy a win. They're 0-7-1 in their last eight and are an amazing 3-14-1 since February 21. If you ever wanted to accuse a team of tanking on purpose, these guys would be it. But we're not doing that. We're simply stating the facts. The Avs may not win a game the rest of the way, as their last five games match them up against Vancouver (twice), San Jose, St. Louis and Dallas. All of those teams are in the playoff picture except Dallas, who has been doing a tank job all their own.
25 percent: Tampa Bay Lightning (5 to go, 6 points back) - The Lightning have been chasing the Islanders for the last spot all season and have not been able to catch them despite starting their fourth string goalie, Mike McKenna, for 12 games. The Lightning will play the Islanders at the Coliseum on Saturday night, a game that could make or break their run at No. 30.
0 percent: Everyone Else - While a few teams have made serious pushes for the last spot, no one has tanked quite as hard as these three. At the moment, the Thrashers are 13 points behind the Islanders, an amazing feat for a team second to last in the league in goals against. They're the fourth closest team to the last spot and with five games to go, there's no chance they or anyone else is going to catch any of these teams.
