Are the Capitals and Sharks Toast?

When a team earns home-ice advantage for a first-round NHL playoff series, the expectation is that they'll win at least one of the first two games. That leaves you in position to take control of the series on the road.

However, if you lose those first two home games, and then face up with two straight games in the underdog's building, what does that mean? The Washington Capitals and San Jose Sharks are about to find out, and the facts might not be what you expect.

The Capitals and Sharks have lost in different ways. Most everyone will conclude that San Jose has been the better team for most of their two games with Anaheim. However, the Sharks aren't doing enough of the little things right, whether it be in front of Evgeni Nabokov or Jonas Hiller. It leaves Nabokov with too many superhuman saves to make, and it means Hiller hardly ever has to make more than the first save before the puck gets at least cleared to the boards.

Meanwhile, the Capitals appear to have been frustrated into trying to play hockey as an individual game. The Rangers have no such problems, playing awesome team defense while doing virtually nothing to earn scoring chances on the other end.

These are teachable points, and it is expected that both the Capitals and Sharks will play better in their next games.


You might think that it's too little, too late for a team that kicked away two home games to start a series, but you'd be wrong.

According to the folks at WhoWins.com, NHL teams that go up 2-0 in a best-of-seven series have won the series 254 out of 291 times, a success rate of just over 87%.

Common sense might tell you that teams winning the first two games on the road would have a higher success rate than those who won the first two at home, or "held serve", as the old saying goes.

That would be incorrect.

The sample size is smaller, but the results are interesting. There have been 68 previous instances of the visiting team winning Games One and Two of a best-of-seven NHL playoff series. Those teams have gone on to win the series 52 times, or just a shade under 77%. Furthermore, those teams are batting just .500 in Game Three (34-34), meaning they go home and risk losing all momentum in the series right away.

There have been 223 series where the first two games have been won by the home team. While those teams are only 121-102 in the third game, they go on to win the series over 90% of the time (202 times overall).

The moral of the story is simple: Teams that have proven over the course of a long regular season, and come out strong at the start of the series, will usually win the series.

Despite all this, history is still not on Washington's or San Jose's side. They are both in need of at least one road win, and they lose those home games for a good reason.


It might sound simple, but both teams have to be more effective in front of both nets. The Capitals aren't getting any second chances, and a lot of that is due to them shooting high on butterfly goalie Henrik Lundqvist. Shooting high has its advantages, especially if you think the goalie is weak there. However, there are disadvantages, including the fact that you're not as likely to get juicy rebounds on high shots.

Washington's stars, including Alexander Ovechkin, need to figure out how to play as a unit, and outplay the Rangers at team hockey. Right now, it looks like a group of individuals at times, and while that might work in the regular season, it won't work in the playoffs, which are all about extra effort and communication.

San Jose just can't get to the net and get after rebounds. The Anaheim Ducks are doing a super job protecting goalie Jonas Hiller, who has had to make a lot of saves, but has not been hung out to dry by poor defense or rebound control. Give the Sharks credit, because it doesn't look like they're trying to hold out for the perfect shot, but they still aren't getting to the net and creating enough traffic, nor are they able to get after rebounds.

While Washington was much better in the defensive zone during their Game Two loss Saturday, San Jose is not slowing the Ducks the way most "experts" thought they would. If that doesn't turn around, it will be a quick ending for the Sharks.

Needless to say, Game Three is a must-win for both. Game Four probably is, too, but it won't matter very much without a Game Three win.