Analyzing Goalies as Martin Brodeur Nears Record

Martin Brodeur is one shutout away from tying Terry Sawchuk's all-time shutout record. How meaningful is that? And what is the best means for judging goaltenders' performance?

A quick gander at the NHL Official Record Book isn't necessarily the final answer. It shows a mere page here and there for goalie stats mixed among dozens of stats for everyone else. Even just simple things that once were listed are no longer there: most shots ever faced in a 60-minute game, for example. Maybe not all that meaningful from a statistical standpoint, but interesting nonetheless: Blackhawks Hall of Famer Sam LoPresti faced 83 shots from the Bruins on March 4, 1941.

NHL statistician Benny Ercolani told FanHouse that the tidbit is no longer included in the official record book because the game sheet that includes shots on goal was not introduced until the 1955-56 season. (Plus-minus, same thing.) The LoPresti information probably came from a newspaper account, Ercolani guessed, but the league can't consider it entirely official without shots recorded from all games before 1955-56.

"Guys like (Martin) Brodeur, Patrick Roy, Ed Belfour, have one thing on their mind -- giving the opponent as little as possible. That speaks volumes about Marty's mental toughness."
-- Darren Pang on Martin BrodeurSo goaltenders' stats tend to be just the basics: goals against average, wins, losses, shutouts. It's a fairly open-and-shut job description; maybe it's over-thinking to want more.

That's why FanHouse went to hockey analyst Darren Pang, himself a former Blackhawks goalie, to find out if the basic goalie stats are enough to judge a goaltender's performance.

"That is one area hockey could do a better job," Pang told FanHouse by phone. "There are no statistics that indicate quality shots on goal. That's what I'd like to see. Or how many saves does a goalie make when the game is 2-1? Or when his team is trailing 2-1? Those things are definitely more meaningful."

Baseball is ahead of most sports when it comes to that kind of analysis, as FanHouse's Adam Gretz pointed out several months ago. Measuring defensive performance in baseball is tricky, making it something akin to goaltending, but there are more tools to do so accurately in baseball now with things such as zone ratings. That requires trained observers to note where balls are hit and how hard, along with recognizing defensive positioning and other factors.

There's no reason hockey couldn't do something similar. Pang said that current stats crews have their hands full recording hits and takeaways and the like, so he suggests the NHL staff games with former goaltenders to keep track of quality shots and game situations for goaltenders. Ercolani pointed out that quality shots would be a very subjective measurement, but both Ercolani and Pang said that NHL coaching staffs already are keeping track of such things. So it's not impossible, even if some stats are judgment calls (same thing with some aspects of zone ratings in baseball -- a soft lineout is a flyball to some and a lineout to others.)

Then there are other factors that can influence goaltenders' performance. Does one goalie have a terrific defensive unit in front of him while another has to try to deal with his team's defensive shortcomings? Does a team play a particularly stingy defensive style?

That's always been the one knock on Brodeur, if anyone could possibly quibble with a future Hall of Famer: New Jersey's defensive scheme means he doesn't face a lot of shots. But Pang and Ercolani said facing fewer shots doesn't diminish Brodeur's accomplishments at all. "Some people can't appreciate how good he is, but he always makes the big saves," Ercolani said.

Pang said that facing relatively few shots can make things more difficult for a goalie, rather than easier. "You'd think it would be easier," he said, "but some goalies mentally fall asleep. They'll face 18 shots and give up three goals. Marty has the ability to shut everything else out and make the saves he's supposed to."

Brodeur has 102 shutouts in his 15 years in the league (an average of nearly seven per season). How significant is the shutout as a statistic? Pang said this is another instance where he'd like to know the game situation. A 2-0 shutout is a bigger deal than a 6-0 blanking. Plus, some of the all-time greats weren't shutout goalies; Grant Fuhr, for instance.

"It didn't matter to him if it was 6-0 or 6-4 as long as they won the game," said Pang, who never recorded an NHL shutout. "Guys like Brodeur, Patrick Roy, Ed Belfour, have one thing on their mind -- giving the opponents as little as possible. That speaks volumes about Marty's mental toughness."

Brodeur has a chance to tie Sawchuk Thursday night against New Jersey's rival, the Rangers, which would definitely be an accomplishment considering that New York is leading the league in scoring.