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Forbes Magazine Puts Three NHL Teams on Endangered Franchise List

Yesterday, Forbes put together yet another list that they know readers love, in this case, the top 10 sports franchises most likely to move. The NHL and the NFL tied for most teams on the list, each with three, while Major League Baseball and the NBA both placed two teams on the list.

The candidates from the NHL aren't much of a surprise. The New York Islanders, Phoenix Coyotes and Nashville Predators all made the list, and their problems are more or less familiar to folks who follow the game closely. On Long Island, a team that hasn't won a playoff round in 15 years struggles on with an aging building; in Phoenix, a Canadian refugee is struggling financially in a non-traditional market; while Nashville is just looking for a reliable owner.

But for all of Forbes well-deserved reputation for solid reporting, they are not above getting it wrong sometimes. Here's the Nashville capsule:
Predators ownership went into the season armed with a contract clause with the Nashville officials stipulating they could leave town if the team didn't draw at least 14,000 fans per game to the city-owned Sommet Center. They wound up at just over 14,900 per game. No word on whether owner Craig Leipold tried to channel Rachel Phelps (character who played the Cleveland Indians owner in Major League) in an attempt to sabotage attendance.
Last time I checked, Leipold was the former owner of the Predators, having sold the team and been approved as the new owner of the Minnesota Wild.

I have another idea for Forbes: how about a feature on the top 10 sports franchises likely to disappear in the event of a violent economic contraction? You may even get a chance to see your predictions come true in the short term!

PuckToons: Salary Cap Dieting Tips

Every Thursday, Earl Sleek will conspire with his pen and scanner to bring you another installment of PuckToons. Hopefully you will find these amusing, relevant, well-drawn, or you're a person who is tolerant towards mediocrity.

There certainly has been a lot of strange salary cap-related moves in the last few days around the league, particularly in the Pacific Division. Players have been waived, demoted, and even promoted in order to maximize spending under this year's $56.7 million cap ceiling.

In San Jose, defenseman Kyle McLaren was sent through waivers in an attempt to have his $2.5 million claimed by another team, but since nobody grabbed him, McLaren was demoted to the AHL Worcester affiliate. It's not an ideal solution for the team or the player, but it does at least allow the Sharks to begin the season below the salary ceiling. In Dallas, promising youngsters James Neal and Mark Fistric were demoted to the Central Hockey League's Oklahoma City Blazers, but then were recalled the following day to take advantage of Sergei Zubov's long-term injury. Anaheim went through most of its salary-shedding a few weeks ago, with the waiving then trading of defenseman Mathieu Schneider, the demotion of Bobby Ryan, and the trading of defenseman Sean O'Donnell. On top of that, the Ducks promoted goaltender David LeNeveu just for a day to take full advantage of the long-term injury exception.

On the other end of the salary spectrum, the Los Angeles Kings' GM Dean Lombardi and forward Patrick O'Sullivan finally finished their contract negotiations, and Lombardi's stubbornness appears to have paid off, as O'Sullivan signed a very affordable 3-year deal. With the signing, Los Angeles should be comfortably above the salary cap floor, though it still looks to be a tough year for the low-spending Kings. With all the promotions, demotions, trades, and signings of the last few days, one thing is clear: the salary cap is changing the way hockey teams operate in dramatic ways, and it's becoming tough for even hardcore fans to understand what their teams are up to. Regardless of silly salary cap math, though, the North American NHL season begins tonight! Hooray!

NHL Season Preview: Phoenix Coyotes

Welcome to the NHL FanHouse 2008-09 season preview. While other sites are previewing "30 teams in 30 days," we decided to take advantage of the extra time off before the start of the season to bring you all 30 previews over the next three weeks. We're counting down in reverse order of finish from last season in each conference every weekday from now until October 3. Look for an Eastern Conference preview every morning and a Western Conference preview every afternoon. Click here to read them all.

Who's In: Olli Jokinen, C (Trade-FLA); Kurt Sauer, D (FA-COL); David Hale, D (FA-CGY); Todd Fedoruk, W (FA-MIN); Brian McGratton, W (FA-OTT)

Who's Out: Keith Ballard, D (Trade-FLA); Nick Boynton, D (Trade-FLA); Radim Vrbata, W (FA-TBL); Mike York, W (FA-CBJ); Niko Kapanen, C (FA-Russia); Marcel Hossa, W (FA-Russia)

What's Changed: Since the lockout, the Pacific Division has essentially been a three-team struggle. Over those three years, the Dallas Stars have accumulated 316 standings points, the San Jose Sharks 314, and the Anaheim Ducks 310. Other than Detroit (352), they represent the highest totals in the western conference over that span.

This season, things more or less will stay the same in the Pacific -- the Stars, Sharks, and Ducks figure to continue their winning ways (I'll be previewing them in two weeks) while the Kings continue their battle to stay out of the cellar. The Phoenix Coyotes, on the other hand, represent the division's most interesting team. They are the ones that are improving, and with a new #1 center in Olli Jokinen, a full season of Ilya Bryzgalov in the net, and a young core of forwards that would make any general manager drool, it's tough to know how good this team could get. Could this be the year that the Coyotes get seated at the winner's table in the Pacific?

Will the US Dollar Sink the Salary Cap?


For those who follow the goings on in the financial markets closely, the recent rally in the US Dollar in terms of the trade-weighted index was quite an event, considering the extreme weakness of world's reserve currency over the past 7 years. The blast upwards to 76 on the index has some people proclaiming (and I'm not one of them, mind you) that the Bear Market in the dollar is over:
"This is the watershed week for the US dollar," said Marc Chandler, currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman. "The magnitude of the dollar's moves and the breaking of key technical levels suggest that a major shift in the outlook towards the dollar is occurring as massive positions are adjusted." Other analysts described the widespread buying of dollars as "capitulation"
One might be wondering what this has to do with the NHL, and, as the title of this post suggests, the salary cap? Allow me to build my case slowly if you would. Considering that according to this article in the Toronto Star I found at this post by my old blogging buddy the EclectEcon over at the Sportseconomist.com, the driving force behind the >10% rise in the salary cap for each of the past two seasons was the strengthening Canadian Dollar:

The increase in the value of the Canadian dollar may be responsible for as much as half of the league's revenue gains since the NHL went through the lockout of 2004-05, say several sources familiar with NHL finances.

"If you take out the Canadian teams, which have done so well since the lockout largely because of the Canadian dollar, the league's revenues are actually only growing at a 2 per cent clip per year," says an executive with a U.S.-based NHL team, who requested anonymity.

With the Loonie averaging near parity with the $USD over the past year and having broken down out of the box formation that held it in check between $1.02 and $0.97US for the past 9 months to its closing price as of this writing to $0.938, there is a real possibility of a contraction in league revenues due to this breakdown of the exchange rate.

The Coyotes Are Loading Up on Beef


If I asked you what NHL team you would consider to be a bunch of big bullies, what would you likely say?

The Philadelphia Flyers, who regularly get suspensions for vicious hits? The Anaheim Ducks, who won a Stanley Cup on the backs of thugs like Brad May? The Calgary Flames, a Mike Keenan team?

Well, how about the Phoenix Coyotes, who, as noted by Rob Webb of The Bleacher Report, have gone to great lengths this off-season to get bigger, meaner, and tougher.
First [the Coyotes] traded for Olli Jokinen, who is a great player that plays with a physical edge and will stick up for his teammates when needed.

Then they brought in Kurt Sauer. A big, hard hitting defenseman who also has a lot of skill.

Then they brought in the big tough guys, two of them actually: Brian McGrattan and Todd Fedoruk.

I'm not surprised at this turn of events, given the way Gretzky has always loved his tough guy buddies (McSorely, Semenko, Beukeboom).

The Phoenix Coyotes ranked seventh with 1193 penalty minutes last season, suggesting the Coyotes are a physical team. The funny thing is that Daniel Carcillo was responsible for 324 of those minutes, and only one other player, Nick Boynton, had more than 100. The rest of the Coyotes appeared to be fairly tame.

What should we expect from the Coyotes next season?

The NHL Free Agent Frenzy at This Hour ...

The NHL Free Agent signing period kicked off a little more than an hour ago, and for the most part, what we've seen so far is teams making deals in order to clear some cap room. Here's a quick rundown of what's been confirmed so far:

The Edmonton Oilers dealt Raffi Torres to Columbus for Gilbert Brule, and also acquired Erik Cole from the Carolina Hurricanes in exchange for defenseman Joni Pitkanen. Click here for details. Meanwhile, Carolina also signed ex-RSL defenseman Anton Babchuk.

Tampa Bay snagged winger Radim Vrbata away from Phoeinix.

The Anaheim Ducks signed winger Corey Perry to a contract extension.

The Calgary Flames obtained Rene Bourque from the Chicago Blackhawks.

The Red Wings have re-signed defenseman Brad Stuart.

Pat Lackey already wrote about Evgeni Malkin, but the Penguins also re-signed Pascal Dupuis.

The Devils re-signed Jay Pandolfo and Bryce Salvador, but said goodbye to Sergei Brylin.

First thoughts: The Brule deal with not be welcome in Edmonton, but the Cole deal is solid. I'm guessing with Vrbta signed the Lightning are done dealing with Brian Rolston, but you never know. And Chicago may be clearing the decks for a big signing.

Stick with us throughout the afternoon. I'm sure plenty of agents are pondering some big numbers right about now.

Panthers Rap Jokinen in Email to Season Ticket Holders

Whenever an organization trades a star player, it's inevitable that a significant slice of your fan base isn't going to be happy. And when the fan base isn't happy, it tends to stop buying tickets and merchandise, the life blood of any professional sports franchise.

That also means that you better be talking to your fans about what you're doing and why you're doing it. Then again, there are times when you can be too honest. Case in point, an email that Ryan Powers, an account executive for the parent company that owns the Florida Panthers, sent to season ticket holders explaining the team's decision to deal captain Olli Jokinen to the Phoenix Coyotes. After explaining what he felt that defensemen Nick Boynton and Keith Ballard brought to the team, Powers took a piece out of Jokinen. Here's how it reads in today's Miami Herald:
``Olli is a great player, but he has shown no leadership or improvement, and he never came through for us when we needed him the most. As a stat, Jokinen scored 5 goals in the last 24 games, this is not acceptable for a Captain of an NHL organization. He played with little heart or passion and never had the determination to reach the playoffs. This move was done for one reason only, to make the postseason and return the passion and energy into this arena.''
Need I remind everyone that Jokinen is Florida's all-time career leader in goals, assists and points? Fans tend to remember contributions like that.

The team has since apologized, but the damage has been done. And with news like this floating around, is it any surprise we've heard reports that Jay Bouwmeester wants out of Florida too?

The Bag Skate: Jagr Reportedly Gets Huge KHL Offer

Is it too hot for hockey? You may be right, but until the cold weather returns, welcome to The Bag Skate, FanHouse's afternoon roundup of everything that's happening on a typical offseason weekday.

We've heard about the rumors that Jaromir Jagr has an offer in his hip pocket to rejoin Avangard Omsk, the KHL team he played with during the lockout, and now, thanks to The Hockey Rodent, we have the first report of some solid numbers in the Czech press. I'm thinking Glen Sather is unmoved.

Though it has a fancy sounding name, don't be fooled: Finding Dulcinea boasts a good hockey blogger.

Barry Melrose wants you to know that the game hasn't passed him by. In fact, he now says that the game is right back where he left it. I'm thinking he's got plenty of people to convince otherwise. Elsewhere in Tampa, Bill Barber is moving on and Marc Denis has been bought out, while Brian Lawton is in.

Is hockey sexist? John MacKinnon says yes.

Coyotes Fail to Sign Wheeler

A month ago, we told you that University of Minnesota forward Blake Wheeler had withdrawn from school to turn pro. Wheeler was drafted four years ago in the first round by the Phoenix Coyotes, who had 30 days to sign him.

Those 30 days have come and gone, and Wheeler is still unsigned. Therefore, Wheeler is now an unrestricted free agent.
"We offered Blake a contract which was both commensurate with his draft position and far exceeded any guaranteed contract he can receive, under the current CBA, with any other team. He has decided, however, that becoming a free agent is in his best interest," said (GM Don) Maloney.

"We are very happy with the compensatory pick we will receive for Blake not signing, which will be the fifth pick in the second round. This is a very deep draft and we now have five picks in the first two rounds, which is very exciting."
This is a bit surprising in one way. Why would you let player you drafted fifth overall become a free agent? One possibility is that Wheeler will sign with the Coyotes, anyway. Phoenix gets their player, and they still get the draft pick compensation.

However, the Coyotes also run the high risk here of losing a player they coveted four years ago. Yes, Wheeler had a somewhat disappointing career at Minnesota. His size and skill set, however, should make him a coveted player on the open market.

As Maloney notes, the entry-level contract Phoenix offered him was higher than what he can get as a free agent, as he's now subject to the CBA rules enacted after the lockout. Those rules will restrict the amount of money he can make.

(Memo to Wild GM Doug Risebrough: Sign him. Thank you.)

(Tap of stick: Mirtle)

Coyotes Expected to Sign Gopher Wheeler



Back in 2004, a Minnesota high school star named Blake Wheeler was the first-round pick of Wayne Gretzky and the Phoenix Coyotes. Eyebrows were raised, as Wheeler wasn't projected by anyone to be a potential top pick.

Four years later, it appears Wheeler will finally get a chance to play professional hockey.

The Minnesota Gopher junior is expected to sign a deal to join the Coyotes organization, forgoing his final year of eligibility at Minnesota. Wheeler starred at Breck School, a private school in the Twin Cities area, leading them to the 2004 Class A state championship. He played one year of junior hockey in the USHL before joining Minnesota, where he has tallied 42 goals in his Gopher career.

Some Gopher fans have been disappointed with Wheeler's production, expecting more out of a guy Gretzky was so high on when he played in high school. But Wheeler has rounded into a nice player, and he's the kind of guy whose size and hands make for a constant threat. If there's one negative to his game, it's his tendency not to play strong on his skates. Wheeler isn't a diver, but he can look like one at times, and that's as bad as actually being one.

In other signing news, we're still waiting for 2005 first-round pick T.J. Oshie to sign with St. Louis. Oshie just completed his junior year at North Dakota, helping his team to a fourth straight Frozen Four appearance. I would be lying if I said I thought Oshie would return to school, but I thought the same thing last year.

(A tap of the stick goes to Western College Hockey.)

(UPDATE: WCH now reports that Wheeler has withdrawn from classes at Minnesota and has 30 days to sign with Phoenix before becoming a free agent.)